High Desert Institute

Complex Futures Guild

The Complex Futures Guild is the strategy and modeling engine of the High Desert Institute. While other guilds build the infrastructure or preserve the knowledge, the Complex Futures Guild focuses on synthesis and action.

We turn raw data—from sensors, surveys, and archives—into rigorous models, forecasts, and strategies. We then translate those technical insights into concrete policy briefs, campaign assets, and training materials that empower communities to demand change.

Mission

Our goal is to move beyond “vibes-based futurism” toward quantitative systems modeling. We build, support, and distribute free and open-source tools that allow neighborhoods to measure their own conditions (air quality, social determinants of health, environmental toxicity), visualize the invisible forces shaping their lives, and take an active role in deciding the possible, probable, and preferable futures that lie ahead.

Core Focus Areas

1. Systems Modeling & Analysis

We develop frameworks to measure and model complex interactions between environmental factors (like PM2.5, heat, or industrial toxins) and social realities (housing, demographics, income, cost of living). We move from simple data collection to deep analysis, asking: What kind of future are we headed for, and what kind of future do we want to be headed for?

2. Scenario Planning

We deal in “over/under” forecasts and rigorous “what-if” scenarios.

  • What happens if a truck route is closed?
  • What is the best-case scenario for this neighborhood in 10 years?
  • What is the status quo trajectory? By modeling these futures, we give community organizers and civic stewards the evidence they need to fight for the best outcomes.

3. The “Toolkit” Approach

We believe in exportable, reusable power. We don’t just solve a problem once; we build general-purpose kits that other communities can deploy. This includes:

  • Measurement Layers: Low-barrier sensor stacks and survey templates.
  • Modeling Layers: Jupyter notebooks and analysis pipelines that run locally.
  • Advocacy Layers: Templates for policy briefs and automated visualizations.
  • Training Materials: Workshops and guides to empower local stewards.
  • Open Source Ethos: All tools and resources are freely available for adaptation.
  • Self-hosted AI Collaborators: Local-first AI tools which understand the project and assist with data analysis, brainstorming, and decision-making.

Collaboration

The Complex Futures Guild works hand-in-hand with:

  • Lorekeepers’ Guild: To structure our data, archive our findings, and ground our models in historical context.
  • Pathfinders’ Guild: To build and deploy the physical sensor networks and mesh infrastructure that feed our models and empower communities to organize and communicate without relying on the fragile corporate internet or cell phone networks.

Current Projects in this Guild

  • Complex-Futures.org Toolkit
    A reusable “Community Health & Environment Toolkit” that lets neighborhoods measure problems and conditions, turn that into forecasts, and uses the results to drive policy briefs, campaigns, and concrete demands.