Forecast Convergence Analysis is a Complex Futures Guild project focused on comparative weather intelligence. The system ingests global and hyperlocal forecast models, tracks how they move toward or away from consensus over time, and computes first-, second-, and third-order trend behavior to identify acceleration, instability, and regime shifts in confidence.
A core objective is to model the boundary between actionable medium-term convergence and low-confidence, high-noise long-range outputs. By quantifying agreement, divergence, and volatility across model runs, the project helps separate useful emerging consensus from hysterical oracular hallucinatory forecasts that should not yet drive decisions.